Oh, and by the way, always giving glory to our Lord, Jesus Christ! He comes first. Always.
Remember folks, Earnings Growth (EG) plus Dividend Yield (DY) +/ P/E contraction/Expansion is where your returns come from... so check this from Brian Wesbury over at First Trust Portfolios.
"Economy-wide corporate profits declined 5.1% in the first quarter of 2023, the fastest drop for any quarter since 2020 during the early days of COVID."
That puts a NEGATIVE in the first part of the equation for the first quarter. Not a good sign. HOWEVER, one could argue, with validity I might add, the markets are FORWARD looking by about 6 months thus the negative Q1 EG was already priced back in October when the market was in full bear mode.
There's a lot to that argument. However, now we have to wonder where EG comes from...going forward? AI seems to be the rage. I don't see that as a HUGE boost to EG. But who knows? I've been wrong many, many times.
Ed McQuarrie talks the REAL History of Stocks and Bond performance.
We're taking my son to his Introduction to Auburn event at Auburn University.
we'll see you next week though!
In the meantime, a white paper I'm reading.
"This study validates...that the implementation of (China's) Five Year Plan was followed by a significant production expansion in the encouraged sectors of China. This expansion crowds out production in the same sectors in the US, leading to significant drops in both employment and investments and a notable increase in plant closures."
But it's TRUMP that started the trade war, eh?
sorry folks gotta move all this mulch by this weekend.
WE're preparing for my son Cavan's high school graduation party. So, it's a BIT hectic here to make sure everything is in place...
If it was me, I'd grill burgers and sit on coolers full of water. But apparently I'm not in charge. Who knew?
