Oh, and by the way, always giving glory to our Lord, Jesus Christ! He comes first. Always.
Remember folks, Earnings Growth (EG) plus Dividend Yield (DY) +/ P/E contraction/Expansion is where your returns come from... so check this from Brian Wesbury over at First Trust Portfolios.
"Economy-wide corporate profits declined 5.1% in the first quarter of 2023, the fastest drop for any quarter since 2020 during the early days of COVID."
That puts a NEGATIVE in the first part of the equation for the first quarter. Not a good sign. HOWEVER, one could argue, with validity I might add, the markets are FORWARD looking by about 6 months thus the negative Q1 EG was already priced back in October when the market was in full bear mode.
There's a lot to that argument. However, now we have to wonder where EG comes from...going forward? AI seems to be the rage. I don't see that as a HUGE boost to EG. But who knows? I've been wrong many, many times.
Ed McQuarrie talks the REAL History of Stocks and Bond performance.
Worried About a Stock Market Crash? Here’s What You Should Be Worried About Instead. - Barron's https://share.google/zxmc1t7eE4TLrdHPh
Read this article from Barron's
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/when-it-comes-bonds-dont-be-hero
Interesting article on bond allocation, short term needs for retirement are better to be in a money market account up to two years of spending and up to ten years in a high quality active bond fund. Also active bonds have outperformed index bond funds by one percent
